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Fair and Balanced Overview Post-Enactment
How It Was Formed & Passed
- Budget Reconciliation Process
Congress used budget reconciliation via H. Con. Res. 14 and S. Con. Res. 7 to avoid the Senate filibuster. The bill—H.R. 1—was introduced in May 2025 and heavily shaped by House Budget and Ways & Means Committees. - Key Provisions
- Tax Reform: $4.5 trillion in extended Trump-era tax breaks, SALT deduction cap raised to ~$40,000, new deductions for tips, overtime, auto loan interest, and boosted child tax credits.
- Spending Increases: $160 billion for defense, $170 billion for border enforcement, and large-scale funding for energy infrastructure.
- Rollbacks: Green subsidies and clean energy incentives were pared down or removed. Some climate standards were delayed.
- Senate Drama
Internal GOP debates on Medicaid cuts, SALT relief, and fossil fuel incentives nearly derailed progress. Several climate and social provisions were removed via the Byrd Rule. Final vote: 51–50 in the Senate, with Vice President J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaker. House passed it 218–214. - Signed into Law: July 4, 2025
President Trump signed the bill during a televised White House ceremony on Independence Day, touting it as “the most American law ever written.”
Pro Arguments (Supporters Say)
- Economic Stability: Permanent 2017 tax cuts provide predictability for individuals and businesses.
- Middle-Class Relief: Expanded SALT deduction cap, child tax credits, tip/overtime deductions, and auto interest write-offs.
- Business Growth: Larger pass-through deductions and lower corporate rates boost entrepreneurial expansion.
- Energy Security: Fossil fuel industries revived, permitting streamlined, with less regulatory red tape.
- Immigration Enforcement: Boosted ICE and CBP funding aligns with campaign promises to secure the border.
Con Arguments & New Criticisms
- Deficit Forecast Deteriorates: CBO now estimates an added $3.2 trillion deficit by 2035—worse than earlier projections.
- Healthcare Fallout: 14 million Americans expected to lose Medicaid by 2030. CMS now reporting Medicaid disenrollment spikes in 9 states.
- Insurance Premium Hikes: Premiums have risen ~$1,200/year for average ACA enrollees (KFF, July 2025 data).
- Green Jobs Lost: Department of Energy confirms ~180,000 clean energy jobs lost since July due to subsidy rollbacks.
- Civil Rights Lawsuits: 8 states and multiple immigration rights groups have filed lawsuits claiming ICE overreach and racial profiling.
- Recession Risks: Moody’s Analytics warns of overheating and wage suppression despite GDP boost projections.
Pros & Cons Summary
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Permanent tax relief for families & businesses | Adds $3.2 trillion to national debt |
| Incentives for working families & entrepreneurs | Cuts to Medicaid/SNAP harm lower-income Americans |
| Increased military & border spending | Expanded income inequality |
| Deregulation for energy & infrastructure | Undermines green energy jobs and transition |
| Political unity on Trump’s agenda | Rising premiums, lawsuits, and state-level conflicts |
Impact on Average Americans
- Middle Class: May see savings from tax changes but higher healthcare premiums and reduced social support could neutralize gains.
- Low-Income Families: Face greatest losses—Medicaid and SNAP cuts, work requirements, and rising out-of-pocket health costs.
- High Earners: Receive the most in net benefits—especially from SALT cap relief, estate tax thresholds, and business tax rules.
New Economic Projections (as of August 2025)
| Category | Before the Bill | After the Bill (CBO 2025 Mid-Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Deficit (2035) | $30.1 Trillion | $33.3 Trillion |
| GDP Growth (2026 forecast) | 2.1% | 2.7% (boosted by tax policy) |
| Medicaid Coverage | ~91M | Projected 77M by 2030 |
| Green Energy Jobs | 1.3M | Down to 1.12M post-subsidy cuts |
Final Thoughts: Is It Worth It?
The One Big Beautiful Bill is being hailed as a conservative policy victory—doubling down on tax cuts, deregulation, and border control. But its long-term sustainability is being questioned. Early effects reveal a sharp contrast between those gaining tax relief and those losing healthcare or job support.
With lawsuits filed, premium hikes reported, and energy sector changes underway, this law is not just symbolic—it’s transformational. Will this bill reshape the economy for the better, or deepen inequalities and burdens for the many?
Whether you view it as a roadmap to resurgence or a rollback of social progress will depend on where you stand economically, politically, and morally.
-Lê Nguyên Vũ-
Explore Further Reading
Pro-View Sources:
- White House Briefing on the Bill (2025)
- Tax Foundation: Positive Growth Impact
- Congressman Randy Weber on Energy Revival
Critical/Con-View Sources:
- Congressional Budget Office Report, July 2025
- Kaiser Family Foundation: Medicaid Disenrollment Trends
- Al Jazeera: Premium Hikes and Legal Fallout
- Moody’s: Fiscal Risks and Economic Imbalance
- Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP)